The Canes’ young forwards are crucial to this season’s success

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how the Carolina Hurricanes have taken a step backward this offseason, as quite a few skaters–forwards and defensemen–who were key to the team’s previous successes have left the team as unsigned free agents. This was not unexpected; the Canes have been preparing themselves for this offseason, and many observers believe that this was always going to be a transitional year for the Hurricanes. At forward, the losses of Jake Guentzel, Teuvo Teravainen, and Stefan Noesen as UFAs with the additional contract termination that saw Evgeny Kuznetsov depart the NHL for the KHL has left many people wondering how the Canes will fare this upcoming season. A team that sometimes struggles to score, especially in the postseason, has lost a significant amount of potential offense, and observers have focused on the new acquisitions with the idea that the incoming Canes don’t really replace the offense of the ones who have left.

But there’s a piece of this puzzle that has been overlooked by some observers, especially in the national media. The Carolina Hurricanes have a number of young forwards who have significant levels of experience for their ages and development paths. The oldest of this particular group, Sebastian Aho, just turned 27. Martin Necas is 25, the trio of Andrei Svechnikov, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jack Drury are all 24, and budding star Seth Jarvis is still just 22 years old.

What can we expect from these young Carolina Hurricanes forwards this season? Exact predictions are always tricky, but here’s a few things I’d like to see–along with a phrase I’ve chosen to describe each player at the start of this season:

Sebastian Aho: Lead the way

Sebastian Aho is already a star player and is arguably becoming the face of the franchise. Five of his eight NHL seasons have seen him produce at or near a point per game pace, with last season’s 1.14 p/gp a career best so far. With an 89-point total last season in just 78 games, the question for Aho isn’t whether he will hit 90 points but when he will do it. Similarly, he’s come close to 40 goals in half of his eight seasons and will certainly reach that mark, perhaps as soon as this upcoming season.

It might seem silly to focus on how a point-per-game 1C can be even better than he already is. But it would be even sillier, to me, to say that Aho has already had his best season when that doesn’t seem true at all. He just keeps improving, and it’s a huge part of what makes him a success in Carolina.

Aho himself is always determined to be better. He has the spirit of a winner, someone who hates to lose and wants himself and his team to be reaching for the goal all the time. If he can impart that spirit to his teammates both old and new, I wouldn’t count the Canes out this season at all.

Martin Necas: Prove it

After a fair amount of drama this offseason, Martin Necas re-signed with the Hurricanes for two years with an AAV of $6.5 million. This contract will walk Necas to free agency, which some have seen as a gamble for Carolina.

It’s a gamble for Necas, too, though. The 25-year-old has undeniable star qualities, but has yet to put it all together on a consistent basis; only one season, the 22-23 season, has shown him produce at a star level, with 71 points in 82 games that year.

There’s some speculation that Necas himself sees his struggles (including those from last season) as a result of his deployment. Meanwhile his coach apparently thinks Necas needs to play a 200-foot game consistently to earn better deployment. The two sides will need to compromise if Necas is going to become the star he wants to be–and that the team needs him to become.

Andrei Svechnikov: Level up

There’s no question that Andrei Svechnikov has star potential and has every intention of reaching it. His work ethic is unquestioned and his drive to improve himself is visible every season. Comments he’s made during this offseason have indicated that he was disappointed with his own results last season and wants to be better.

The impact of his injury in March of 2023 and the ongoing effect missing training time etc. had on last season can’t be ignored. Svechnikov’s own frustration on the ice as he worked just to get back to his previous level was palpable.

What also can’t be ignored is this: a fully-healthy mature power forward capable of 30+ goals and 70+ points while playing the punishing physical game Svechnikov is able to play will be a game-changer for the Canes. Whether Svechnikov reaches that level this season or only gets part way there, the impact on the Canes’ success could be huge.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi: Fight for it

We can play the chicken/egg question game in re: Kotkaniemi all day: does he fail to get consistent top 6 deployment because he doesn’t do well in that role consistently, or does he fail to do well in a top 6 role consistently because he’s never gotten consistent deployment in that role? That question could be answered this season if Kotkaniemi gets the start at 2C, as many expect.

But to have a real redemption arc Kotkaniemi is going to have to prove he can play in that role consistently and well, and the only way to do that is to fight for it, every game, every shift, every play. The Canes will still have the option for an extremely cheap buyout next season if he fails to do so, and there’s also the possibility that he shows enough improvement to be tradable (even if he can’t reach the level the Canes want him to reach).

Kotkaniemi doesn’t have to become an elite 2C to justify his contract. The Canes would be well-situated if he can play the role in an adequate manner with a point production of around 50 points. Anything better than that would have a huge positive impact on the team’s potential success going forward.

Jack Drury: Keep growing

With strong defensive play and 27 points in 74 regular season games in a role that divided time between 4C and 2C, Jack Drury had his best NHL season in his short career so far last season. He hit career highs in nearly every category on the stat sheet and is now a clear NHL player; no more AHL games for this young Hurricane. This summer he avoided arbitration by signing a two-year, 1.725 mil AAV contract which is a good deal for the Canes even if Drury doesn’t take another step.

But Drury is focused on doing exactly that. In his end-of-season interviews Jack Drury talked about working on his offense in the belief that he has more to give offensively to the team. Since 7 of his points came on the second unit power play this is quite likely to be true; more offense at 5v5 could propel Drury to the offensive level of a good 3rd line defensive center.

While any added offense from Jack Drury would be a huge benefit to the Canes this season, his stellar defensive play and excellence in winning faceoffs are skills he should lean in to and keep improving; not many young players are so solid in these categories, and the way the Canes play this skillset is particularly valuable to the Canes’ pursuit of success this season.

Seth Jarvis: Own the ice

At 22 years of age Seth Jarvis (who isn’t re-signed just yet as of this post date) is hovering on the brink of stardom, and who knows how much higher he can go than that? 33 goals, 34 assists, 67 points in 81 games while dealing with a shoulder injury for much of the season is incredible to see; his coach is probably more proud that Jarvis was included among those who received Selke votes this season for his defensive skills as well.

Fans are eager for the “Nap King’s” return next season, and there have been some rather wild predictions regarding his point potential next season. While anything is possible with Jarvis, I think the upcoming season will be a huge success if he repeats his current level of offense or possibly increases it to 70 points. Jarvis was rocking an individual 18.8 shooting percentage last season with an on-ice shooting percentage of 13.4, so fans shouldn’t panic if, instead, the point totals fall just slightly, because they could; those numbers aren’t always sustainable.

But Jarvis is the kind of player whose total on-ice impact far outweighs the individual pieces of it. In a word, he’s a threat: dangerous in the offensive zone, hard to play against in the defensive zone, and difficult to ignore in transition. His actual point totals next season won’t matter as much as his singular ability to be a disruptive and frustrating force against opponents of all calibers, and his chemistry with Sebastian Aho is going to continue to be important to the Canes as they head into next season ready to prove the naysayers wrong–something Jarvis is also exceptionally good at.

Getting it done

The Canes’ young forwards are only part of the picture of how the forwards can help to get the job done next season. There’s the veteran forwards like Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook (among others) who will provide solid guidance, experience and energy; there are also some interesting new pieces who will be fun to watch in training camp. In addition, the possibility that one or more of the young prospects might make the team is intriguing as well.

But the six players I’ve discussed here, ranging in age from 22 to 27, are each in a position to help the Canes take the next step (and to do so themselves, as well). Their continued growth is going to be critical to a team that has lost some very valuable pieces, and their success as individual players is very much tied to the Canes’ overall success this season.