Carolina Hurricanes News: Eric Tulsky named GM. What’s his plan for Necas, Guentzel, Pesce & Skjei?

By Tom Ray

With the upcoming draft just a couple of weeks away. And, of course, free agency on July 1st, Carolina Hurricanes fans are wondering what’s going to happen with the Canes. You know the Canes have eight unrestricted free agents to deal with and three that are restricted as well. And boy I tell you, there’s some big names in that group, as you can imagine. But the Canes have got cap problems and it’s going to be tight. And I’m going to run through some interesting numbers courtesy of the folks at CapFriendly, and also some work with the AFP Analytics Group, and show us exactly where we are.

You know the Canes made a big move this week. It’s been stated by Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff that the Canes are going to move forward for the GM position with an internal candidate. Apparently, the Canes have told the prospects who are vying for that job that they will go with someone in the house right now. Well, the likely choice and it seems like this will be the choice is going to be Eric Tulsky. Tulsky has been the interim GM for a while. He’s been with the Canes for several years and, of course, he’s been instrumental in many of the moves they’ve made. He, and his analytics team in particular, have done some incredible job putting together the necessary information needed by Don Waddell and others to make the decisions that have ultimately happened for the Canes. So great stuff for Tulsky, I think. A great move for the Canes. Apparently, Tulsky gets along very well with owner Tom Dundon and I think that’s going to be key as they work through and navigate through this kind of rough waters over the coming days, particularly with the unrestricted free agent group they’re dealing with. So let’s get started.

You know the Canes are in a kind of an interesting situation right now. They have six forwards, three defensemen and three goalies currently under contract for this coming season. That doesn’t include the entry-level guys that they just signed Scott Morrow, of course, on the defense, and then forwards Jackson Blake and Bradly Nadeau. But if you look at this, the Canes are pretty skimpy right now. So they’ve got a lot of work to do to fill out the roster. That’s a total of almost $57 million already allocated for these players. So the Canes are in kind of a tough situation. They only have $32 million around that range. The other complexity I think this year is that heading into next summer they’ll have three more significant unrestricted free agents. That would be Jacob Slavin, Brent Burns and Dimitry Orlov, all on the defensive court. So you wrap that up with the current defensive players who are on unrestricted free agents this year, and that’s four of them and that’s the entire Canes defense. So, boy, this is a pressing matter, to say the least.

There is another wild card in this, of course. The Canes have been trying to bring Alexander Nikishin over, and there was discussion earlier in the exit interview with Don Waddell around Nikishin and he said the Canes are really working hard to bring him over this year. They’ve been in discussions with the necessary folks in Russia and he said it’s not out of the realm of possibility, or it wasn’t at that time. He also stated that they expected Nikishin would be signed in any case so that when he’s finished his season at SKA in the KHL, he could come over and play for the Hurricanes. So that’s something we’re going to have to follow closely because, of course, Nikishin is expected to be in the top four for the Hurricanes. So that would certainly help significantly as they try to rebuild this defensive core.

Now, looking at the current priorities for the Hurricanes and this has been stated pretty clearly through the Canes themselves there are two guys that really need to get done. They want to extend Jacob Slavin. They can do that effective July 1st and it’s generally conceded that that will be done. If not, then shortly after. He’s critical to the Canes going forward and he’s certainly the anchor of the blue line for the Hurricanes. And then, Seth Jarvis. Jarvis is a guy that has come into his own in just a short period of time, has become one of the key Hurricanes this year over 30 goals and, of course, his outstanding defensive play for the Hurricanes. He’s a guy they’re going to build around for many years ahead. So, it’s expected the Canes are going to want to lock him up long term, and so that’s going to be a big deal they’ll be putting together with, of course, Seth Jarvis. You take a look at that and you start to see some pieces coming together for the Hurricanes.

Ultimately, Tulsky and company are going to have some big decisions. To sign all of the unrestricted free agents with the Canes and all the restricted free agents would cost the Hurricanes roughly $54 million. This is based on the work of AFP Analytics, who are recognized as one of the best at kind of identifying the cost for these players. Not exactly right. For sure there’s going to be some movement here. When you take a look at the list the numbers are huge. You know defensemen Pesce and Skjei are both up there. They’re suggesting five-year deals $6.2M for Pesce and $7.5M or so for Shea. On the defense as well, we’ve got DeAngelo. Tony would come in somewhere around $1.7M on a two-year deal. That’s very unlikely but he could be a backup situation for the Canes if they don’t sign Pesce or Skjei.

Necas is a big opportunity on the right side, of course, for the Hurricanes, as an RFA. And again, they are talking about the interest to sign him up long term. If it was long term it would be seven years in the range of $7.5M and then, three years at $6.2M in a bridge deal. So the Canes will have to look at this. And, there’s more to talk about with Necas, which I’ll get into shortly. Guentzel they had somewhere around $9.3M in a seven-year deal. Jarvis they had two different options a short term bridge deal, three years at $6.3M and seven years at $7.9M. So, big numbers. Teravainen, the final one I wanted to cover here with the big decisions, he’s at four years, $5.24M. I just don’t think that’s going to happen for the Hurricanes and we’ll look at that as we kind of look at some of these specific situations right now.

So ,let’s talk about Jake Guentzel. Clearly, when the Canes acquired Guentzel it was with the interest to sign him to a long-term deal. They understood the range that he was going to be in. He was outstanding for the Hurricanes. In just 17 regular season games he had 25 points and also played well in the playoffs. So, definitely Guentzel’s a guy they want to re-up.

Now, what’s been said about Guentzel? Lots of rumors, folks talking about him staying & going. Let’s talk about some of the big insiders and what they’ve said. Elliotte Friedman, of course, recognized as one of the most knowledgeable ones. He said that the Canes may have to move on from Guentzel and if so, they’ve suggested that a mid-round pick would be a way for a team to grab Guentzel before free agency. That’s certainly made the rounds. But, then you’ve got other guys talking about the fact that talks continue Pierre LeBrun and David Pagnotta, both talking about the fact that we could see more discussion with Guentzel. In fact, it’s been rumored that Guentzel is very much in discussion with the Hurricanes and does want to check out free agency. Of course he wants to have a chance to see what’s out there, but he has certainly not ruled out the Hurricanes by any stretch of the imagination. So the Canes right now have an advantage with Guentzel. They can do an eight-year deal. That’s why someone would want to acquire his rights. If they do get his rights before a free agency, they could also do an eight-year deal. That’s a big part of this. So the Canes are trying to leverage that eight years, try to drive down that cap number a little bit and help them with some of the challenges they have this year.

It’s generally thought that if Guentzel signs with the Hurricanes they’ll move on from Marty Necas. Now, Necas’ situation is kind of an interesting one. Recently, his father had some words to say about Necas. He said basically that Marty would like to be on the first line and be playing first power play minutes and he also suggested that he wasn’t happy with the Canes and that Marty would like to be traded. So I think, if you might have recalled at the exit interview discussion that Don Waddell had, that question was brought to him and he very quickly dismissed it and suggested that he didn’t really care what Marty’s father said. Decisions by the Hurricanes will be made in the best interest of the Hurricanes team. So again, not so sure that plays into much here. Interestingly enough, Necas of course starred in the World Championships recently when he went over to play for Czechia and that has certainly raised more interest into Necas.

If we take a look again at what the insiders have been saying about Marty Elliot Friedman, again lots of folks talking about Marty and the possibility of acquiring him. Tremendous interest of course. David Pagnotta, again talking about the Canes still trying to sell him. Pagnotta with fourth period and he’s generally pretty close to what’s going on with these teams. Frank Seravalli, he was a bit off the mark. He suggested that it was possible. He said I wouldn’t be surprised if Necas was traded before the first playoff game in the finals. So that’s kind of interesting. That’s come and gone. Now he suggests that the Canes are knee-deep in discussion to move him. I think that’s something that we have to look at a little bit closer. And then Pierre LeBrun recently said half the teams in the NHL have inquired about Necas. Some of the teams that certainly have been rumored around Necas you hear Vancouver, you hear Calgary, you hear others.

I believe strongly that the Canes are not shopping Necas right now. They have a situation where if they don’t sign Guentzel, they’ve got to keep Necas and the only way they could move Necas and they’ve been very clear from what the insiders have suggested on this is that the only way they move Marty is to get a like player in return. And there’s not very many of those players that might be available and I think a deal like that would be very, very difficult. So if Guentzel goes, I think Necas stays. If Guentzel stays, the Canes have a little bit more flexibility. In that situation they’re going to want to trade Marty for low dollar situations. They’re not going to want a high cap player because they won’t be able to absorb it, but they might be interested in prospects and, of course, draft picks and I think that would make a lot of sense for the Hurricanes. But right now, as I see it, Guentzel is the guy they really want to sign first. If that doesn’t work, I believe Necas will stay and probably do a bridge deal. So, the Hurricanes again need to fill one of those spots and that’s going to be critical as they go forward.

Another guy that’s getting a lot of press, of course, is Brett Pesce these days Pesce. The rumors came out throughout the season that Pesce had been offered a five times 5.5 deal with the Hurricanes and turned it down, and I think that’s kind of interesting. Now again lots of folks suggesting that they’re just not able to put this deal together. Elliotte Friedman recently said re-signing him is not likely and again previous offers have been turned down. So, I think there’s a lot of discussion going on around Pesce that suggests he’s going to be available. David Pagnotta, again the Fourth Period, suggesting that the Canes are still trying to sign him. A couple of teams that have been very outspoken about their interest in Pesce are the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Nashville Predators.

“Obviously, I’m hopeful we can work something out here. Everyone knows I love it here and I love the guys, I love the Corps and I still think we can get it done. So yeah, just hopeful.”
This is what Brett Pesce said in his exit interview just recently. You get a sense that he really wants to stay with the Hurricanes and he’s willing to bend a little bit on this deal. I would be very surprised if a deal isn’t done with Pesce. I think the Canes need to make sure they’ve got another veteran on that blue and I think Pesce can be done at a very team-friendly deal as well. So, we’ll wait and see how that plays out. I think Pesce is the more likely than his partner last year, Brady Skjei, and so those are key signings for the Hurricanes and will certainly eat into that available cap dollar situation significantly.

Now, another possible move that we could see and this has been rumored an awful lot has been with Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The hurricanes are in a situation where earlier this summer, of course, it was rumored that the Canes would buy out Kotkaniemi. The numbers are huge. You’re talking about a $10M buy-out right now. Of course, that’s better than buying him out in three years when it would be double that. So, the hurricanes are thinking this might be a smart move but in two years before he’s 26, the Canes can do a lot better than exercising a buy-out now. Friedman recently has said that he doesn’t expect a buy-out to happen. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and one of the reasons, I think, is the Canes have now received a little bit of interest from teams around the NHL in Kotkaniemi. So it’s possible that if the Canes decide to move on from Jesperi, that they could put a deal together with one of the teams in the league. That would be a very positive situation for Kotkaniemi.

The Canes do have another option and that would be to again either buy-out or move Evgeny Kuznetsov. So the question is can they do something with Kuznetsov and do they keep Kotkaniemi, or alternatively, do they move Kotkaniemi and continue with Kuznetsov? I think that’s still to be determined. I would suggest that moving Kuznetsov might be the better move.
Kotkaniemi is still a young guy, still has a lot of potential. I think it’d be tough to give him away for not much. They gave up a lot for him and certainly had paid big dollars for him while he’s been with the Hurricanes. So, I think he’s still got a little bit of run way and I expect he’ll be back in the fall and he certainly is a guy that will be needed if the Canes can’t shore up their center ice spot. That’s going to be a challenge for them. Not a lot of key centers available, so I think Kotkaniemi still could be a significant part for the Hurricanes.
When we take a look at all that and, of course, looking at players that we think are going to be back, I really believe that Jalen Chatfield and Jack Drury and Jordan Martinook are all going to be back with the Hurricanes. I think all three of those guys will come back on deals that will work for the Canes. A lot of discussion around Chatfield and certainly Martinook, with rumors that teams are willing to pay a lot more for these guys. Nonetheless, I think they’re going to be back. Clearly, Martinook is going to take a team-friendly deal with the Hurricanes. As for Chatfield, sounds like he really wants to return.

“I’m just doing what’s right and hopefully being able to stay here and because you know, obviously this is a good place to play and everybody loves it here, so this is a place that you know. I think everybody who’s up wants to stay.”
So, I thought we’d have a little bit of fun with this, using the Cap-Friendly #s for current salaries and the AFP Analytics #s for proposed salaries. I came up with a bit of an analysis here that I think shows some interesting things. The Canes have several players that I do not think will return. So of course I’ve mentioned Teuvo Teravainen, unlikely to return, Stefan Noeson, unlikely to return. I believe one of Pesce or Skjei will not be back. I believe one of Guentzel or Necas will not be back. I also think that Spencer Martin is likely to head to the minor leagues. The Canes will not be able to carry his salary. Then if you take a look at what these numbers look like, with 11 forwards and 5 defensemen and 2 goalies currently under contract, you end up with about $74M. I do have Brendan Lemieux in there, as well. He’s on a deal this year $775K. So, you’ve got a pretty good start on the line-up here. And at $74.5M, you still have $13.5M left ot reach the $88M cap. So, you’ve got lots of room to play with. That could be helped a little bit. As I mentioned, if they decide to do something with either Kuznetsov or Kotkaniemi, that would add probably in the range of another 4, so that gets you up to $17.5M available. So, if you’re sitting with $17.5M, you’re probably trying to get another forward and another defenseman, at least and maybe a couple of extras on top. You could definitely do Jake Guentzel. He’d be somewhere around $8M or $9M. You could definitely do one of Pesce or Skjei somewhere in that $6M to $7M range and you’d still have a little bit left over.

So, the Canes are in a position where they could bring a lot of the team back. There’s no question. It’s really a question of whether they want to do that or not. My belief is strongly that they do, as we’ve heard in the past. Rod Brind’Amour is a big proponent of his team. He loves his team. He wants as many players back as possible. So I think again, depending on how the Canes want to play this, they could bring a number of the guys back and have a pretty good start on the roster for next year.